Digital keeps taking retail share
Ecommerce is forecast to represent 20.5% of retail in 2025, 21.1% in 2026, and 22.5% by 2028. Channel gravity continues to move online. (eMarketer, cited by Shopify)
Tenten Research · July 2026
2026 Ecommerce TrendsFour decisions behinddurable demand
Global ecommerce is returning to roughly 7% growth while AI answers become another route to product discovery. We translated public market signals into four operating decisions for U.S. commerce leaders and attributed each figure to a named source.
- named public sources
- 7
- traceable data points
- 30+
- chapters plus a U.S. action model
- 4
For some customers, an AI-generated answer now appears before the brand storefront.
01
Global market
$6.88T
forecast global ecommerce sales in 2026
eMarketer, February 2025
02
AI discovery
73%
of consumers use AI to discover brands and products
McKinsey, cited by Shopify
03
Platform economics
77.3%
reported Shop Pay checkout completion rate
Digital Applied, 2026
04
U.S. execution
4
operating owners to define before the roadmap
Tenten operating model
Chapter 01 · Global market
Global ecommerce reaches $6.88 trillionas growth settles near 7%
eMarketer's February 2025 forecast, cited by Shopify, puts 2026 global ecommerce sales at $6.88 trillion, up 7.2% year over year and equal to 21.1% of total retail. The forecast points to continued growth at a more measured pace.
Mobile is a major buying path
Shopify's market summary reports that mobile devices account for 77% of ecommerce site traffic and that mobile commerce reached about $2.07 trillion in 2024. Use first-party device and checkout data to set the mobile priority for a specific store. (Shopify market summary, 2025)
Three regions control the majority
China, the United States, and Western Europe together represent 80.5% of global ecommerce sales. Market prioritization matters more than indiscriminate expansion. (eMarketer, cited by Shopify)
Global ecommerce annual growth from 2024 to 2028
20247.7%
20256.8%
20267.2%
20277.2%
20286.9%
Source: eMarketer Forecast, February 2025, cited in Shopify's Global Ecommerce Sales analysis.
These signals point toward more mobile buying, cross-border operations, and AI-assisted discovery.
Chapter 02 · AI buying behavior
73% of consumersalready use AI to discover brands
A McKinsey consumer study cited by Shopify reports that 73% use AI to discover brands and products, 61% use it to compare products and services, and 57% use it for personalized recommendations. AI is joining search results, marketplaces, and owned channels near the start of the buying journey.
73%
use AI to discover brands and products
61%
use AI to compare products and services
57%
use AI for personalized recommendations
Source: McKinsey consumer research, cited in Shopify's 2026 ecommerce trends analysis.
One loyalty indicator declined
SAP reports that its measured brand-loyalty indicator fell from 34% in 2024 to 29% in 2025. Treat that as a market signal, then use repeat purchase, cohort retention, and customer research to diagnose the brand's own position.
Marketers report stronger creator results
In Sprout Social's research, 83% of surveyed marketers said creator content outperformed brand-produced content on conversion. The result reflects respondent experience, not a universal benchmark; test creator partnerships against owned-channel economics.
Responses can influence purchase intent
BrightLocal reports that 89% of consumers are more likely to buy after a business responds to a message or review. The finding measures stated intent rather than guaranteed conversion, but it gives customer-care response quality a clear role in the buying experience.
GEO makes brand knowledge specific, structured, attributable, and useful enough for an answer system to cite. Publishing volume alone cannot do that.
Chapter 03 · Platform economics
A 15-point checkout gapcan change paid-traffic economics
Digital Applied's 2026 compilation reports 72.5% checkout completion for Shopify's standard checkout and 77.3% for Shop Pay, compared with a 62.6% industry benchmark. Definitions and samples may differ across platforms, so use the comparison as a directional signal and measure the store's own funnel.
Reported checkout completion by platform
Shop Pay77.3%
Shopify72.5%
BigCommerce64.2%
WooCommerce61.8%
Magento58.4%
Source: Digital Applied platform data compilation, 2026.
The compilation reports more Plus stores
The same third-party compilation counts more than 47,000 Shopify Plus stores and reports 34% year-over-year growth. Shopify publishes three-year pricing from $2,300 per month; current terms and actual fit still require direct verification.
The dataset includes legacy-platform migrations
The compilation attributes 34% of observed Shopify Plus migrations to Magento and 22% to WooCommerce. It does not establish why every brand moved; maintenance cost and release friction should be tested in the business's own platform assessment.
The compilation reports faster Hydrogen results
The compilation reports a 0.9-second average Hydrogen load time and an average Lighthouse performance score of 91, described as 36% faster than standard Liquid themes. Those cross-site averages are not a project forecast; architecture still depends on implementation and the team's ability to maintain it.
Chapter 04 · U.S. execution
Global signals. U.S. operating decisions.Assign the owner before choosing the stack
The same trend creates different work for a U.S. DTC brand, an omnichannel retailer, and a B2B manufacturer. Four ownership decisions turn the research into a roadmap.
01
Payments
Model Shopify Payments, Shop Pay, wallets, fraud, and any third-party provider as one checkout system. The rate card matters, but authorization, chargebacks, and mobile completion shape the real economics.
02
Sales tax
Define where the business has obligations, who owns registrations and filing, and which tax workflow needs software or specialist review. Platform configuration is not a substitute for tax advice.
03
Fulfillment
Map warehouse and 3PL ownership, shipping zones, returns, exchanges, pickup, and customer-service handoffs. These workflows often create more launch risk than the storefront UI.
04
AI readiness
Give product data, editorial evidence, policies, and measurement clear owners. An AI-discovery strategy fails when source facts are thin, inconsistent, or impossible to publish safely.
Turn each relevant trend into an owner, a metric, and a place on the next quarterly roadmap.
Get the complete
2026 commerce brief
- Four chapters with data, charts, and named source notes
- A U.S. operating checklist for payments, tax workflow, fulfillment, and AI readiness
- Tenten's framework for choosing the next platform and content investment
This brief organizes named public sources for decision support. Verify the original source before citing a figure in your own work. Discuss the project implications.
From signal to decision
Continue the commerce roadmap
Related insight
Go deeper on discovery, architecture, and migration
Common questions
How to use this research
Is this a list of predictions?＋
No. The report converts market signals into decisions for content, experience, technology, and operating ownership.
Does every brand need agentic commerce now?＋
No. Product data, policies, measurement, and fulfillment readiness come first. The correct first step depends on the current foundation.
Are the figures Tenten benchmarks?＋
No. Every quantitative claim is attributed to the named public source shown beside it. Tenten's contribution is the operating interpretation.
Is the U.S. action model legal or tax advice?＋
No. It identifies decisions and owners for planning. Use qualified legal and tax professionals for obligations specific to the business.